Anatomy of a Meltdown: Zach Agnos

Welcome to Anatomy of a Meltdown, a featured look into a pitcher’s recent meltdown on the mound. We all love when a pitcher has a shutdown inning, we all cheer when the closer ends the game quickly, but we know they don’t always do that. This is the breakdown of what happened. You might ask, is this to try and figure out why? Maybe. But it’s more to look at the components that make up the whole of a meltdown. One moment got us there, but many moments built it.

On this episode of Anatomy of a Meltdown, we discuss Zach Agnos. The 24-year-old reliever has taken some lumps as he’s taken over the closer role for the worst team in baseball, but there is a lot to like about his makeup and his pitching quality. The rookie throws a mix of fastballs, splitters, and cutters for the majority of his time with hitters, mixing in a sweeper that buries itself in the dirt just to get a swing out of a right handed hitter. The sweeper is an effective outpitch for Agnos, generating a whiff in almost half of the times it’s been thrown. For Agnos, the question isn’t how he got here, he is talented, but how he hones his pitches to be the elite reliever he seems to be showing signs of.

But, this isn’t about how good Zach Agnos is. This is about his meltdown. Specifically, Tuesday’s meltdown. The Rockies came into Tuesday’s game on yet another losing streak. Three straight losses to the Mets at home had deflated any hopes that the Marlins series had turned things around. Now, in come the division rival Giants, fresh off having to IL their star third baseman Matt Chapman. The Rockies had a chance to rebound and for eight full innings, rebound they did.

A pair of runs in the eighth stretched a one run lead to three and as Agnos entered the game to close out the ninth, the Rockies led 5-2. The bases are empty, the inning is just starting, and Agnos has a couple of runs to work with before things get really scary. All in all, a pretty simple closing opportunity for the young righty. At the point Casey Schmitt steps into the batters box, the Giants have a 3% win probability. Agnos finishes his warm up, stares down Schmitt, and fires his first pitch, a 96-mph fastball.

It lands in the bleachers for a home run.

It’s Schmitt’s first home run of the year. Agnos has struggled with making his fastball deceptive and located well so far in the majors and here is another example. This pitch is high, but in the middle of the plate. Schmitt is all over it. It’s 5-3 and the Giants win probability is up to 7%.

All in all, it’s not great. Probably a ding on Zach’s confidence. But, you still have a two run lead. Thank you offense for giving that cushion last half inning.

In steps Giants second baseman Tyler Fitzgerald. Fitz has really been a solid utility man for the Giants, playing second and short when healthy which allows them to move Willy Adames around, but he hasn’t been a high caliber hitter. Agnos stays away from his fastball, which just got crushed a few minutes ago, and fires four cutters, four sweepers, and one splitter. Unfortunately, his sweeper isn’t dying in the dirt. It’s staying up just enough that Fitzgerald can make brief contact and he catches two foul, including one with two strikes. Now that he’s likely timed it, Agnos stays out of the zone more. Which, eventually leads to a walk. Just like that, the Giants have a run and then a base runner. The win probability jumps to 14.5%.

In steps catcher Andrew Knizer, who has stepped into the plate knowing he won’t swing until he is at two strikes. He watches a sweeper just off the plate for ball one, a cutter that barely misses high for ball two, a fastball on the black for strike one, and two more pitches that barely miss the zone to walk to first himself. It’s an annoying at-bat but Knizer just played the Rockies reliever perfectly. He demanded he throw strikes and Zach couldn’t oblige. Agnos now has the tying run on the bags and the Giants lineup now has their good hitters coming up. Win probability is 26%.

It is at this point that a meltdown inning probably enters your brain. What started badly has not turned around. Agnos has faced three hitters, none of them have gotten out, and one has scored. If you are a longtime fan, you have seen this movie before. Relievers now have probably a 70% chance of getting themselves out of this from here, though! Which is pretty high considering you probably only remember when they don’t! I’m making that number up, but it’s probably right, I mean the Rockies still have a 74% probability of winning so it can’t be that far off. Agnos, despite the looming signs of disaster, still has the advantage that the Giants need a few hits before he gets a few outs. The probability band is shrinking for him, but it still exists on his side.

In comes Jung Hoo Lee. The Giants centerfielder is enjoying a breakout year after coming over from the KBO in Korea. He’s been a pretty good hitter and an exceptional defender. Here, he represents the Giants lineup turning over as he is their leadoff hitter. This is notable, most of the time baseball teams put good hitters at the top of their lineup. Zach had a chance to take care of business with the guys the Giants didn’t think were good hitters, but he didn’t, and now he gets the honor of facing their good ones. Luckily, Agnos gets Lee to ground one to third. Ryan McMahon, the Rockies exceptional defensive third baseman, steps on third and fires to first to try and turn a quick double play. But it’s not in time. In any case, the Rockies have gotten the lead runner out, still have a double play in possibility, and have the lead. Agnos can take a few seconds to rest and…oh no.

As Willy Adames, the Giants shortstop, comes to bat, a sweeper gets away from catcher Hunter Goodman, the runners move up to second and third. Now a base hit from Adames ties it. Now, all the things that you could be happy about that just happened were things that you are less happy about. Zach Agnos is now in a little bit more trouble. The Giants win probability has jumped again. He has taken away his main weapon of a ground ball. Now, most contact likely gets the runner from third home. He risks a blown save by allowing anything to get hit at all. The Rockies are officially on a meltdown warning.

Agnos and Willy Adames work a full count together. A few cutters just off the plate are fouled off by Adames and Agnos needs a really good pitch to get him out here. He throws a cutter high, Adames lays off this time. Ball four. Now, the bases are loaded. Now, the trouble has arrived at home.

Earlier in the inning, Rockies pitching coach Darryl Scott had come out to try and calm Zach Agnos down. During that period, interim manager Warren Schaeffer called the bullpen. Victor Vodnik was up and throwing. If Agnos didn’t start to find more outs, his time was likely limited. Scott did his best with the rook, hoping his words of calm were enough for him to lock in and secure a couple of outs.

Unfortunately, as we know, Zach had labored since then. The Giants win probability after Adames’ walk was 27%. Really, if you think about it hard enough, Agnos hadn’t made it much worse by walking the Giants shortstop. There was now an out at every base, a double play possibility back in play, and a slower hitter at the plate in Heliot Ramos. But now Agnos was at 26 pitches. A high number for most closers and one that made his already lackluster stuff today start to look…pedestrian. With the Giants number three hitter coming up, Schaeffer made the call. Agnos headed to the dugout, Vodnik took the ball to try and clean up the mess.

It almost worked. But it didn’t. Ramos made contact and brought in a run on a sacrifice fly. The Giants poked to singles after him. What was a 5-2 lead was now a 6-5 deficit.

The Rockies lose games in a lot of boring ways. It happens when you lose as often as they do. But sometimes, the clouds part and they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in an exciting way. Zach Agnos will probably be fine, he has a lot of really good pitches. But on Tuesday, he was melting down. And like the bureaucrats of Chernobyl, the Rockies didn’t catch it in time.