You have probably heard about Antonio Senzatela’s 2025. In a year that the Rockies set just about every bad record they could, Senzatela was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. In fact, you could make an argument that by metrics, peripheral statistics, and normal every day stats he was THE single worst pitcher in Major League Baseball. By the end of the season, the Rockies had dumped him to the bullpen and a lot of signs were starting to point towards an unceremonious end to his time as a Rockie. But, with the changing of the guard in the Rockies front office and coaching departments, Antonio received some new life in the final year of his contract. A put up or shut up year for the new regime to review his abilities.

He showed up to camp turning heads with an exciting pitch mix and improved secondary offerings. This was exciting but many players have showed up to camp with new things before and when push came to shove it didn’t suddenly make a bad major leaguer good. Still, as camp closed, Senza kept himself in the bigs and nearly forced his way into the starting rotation with his new attack plan. In a new world where the Rockies operate like a normal organization (which there are many arguments this is a world we now live in), Senzatela making the team is less a sunk cost fallacy continuing to torture everyone and more actual support to the theory that he’s no longer the worst pitcher in baseball. Up until now, this was all a theory, like the flat earth or Paul McCartney’s secret replacement.

Over the opening week though, we did get to see Antonio work and…well, I don’t think it dismisses the optimists in the world that think he may have somehow transformed into a good pitcher. Over 2 and 2/3 scoreless innings in Miami, Senza kept Marlins hitters off balance and uncomfortable throughout. He kept that up in two full scoreless innings against a much tougher lineup in Toronto on Wednesday, too. Compare his outings to a similar story like Chase Dollander’s and you saw a much more polished approach with a much better outcome. Overall, he’s struck out six, walked just one, and has only allowed two hits (neither for extra bases). Now, you’re probably saying “omg Connor it’s the Marlins and two road games, let’s relax” and I think you’re right. But if you look at how Senzatela structured his attacks…you also might be wrong. Let’s playyyy CAN HE BE GOOD?

Last season, as mentioned above and about fourteen thousand times in this blog, Senza relied heavily on a really bad fastball. He threw it 57% of the time last year (about 1300 total times) and saw it get absolutely pummeled. Part of the hype around his improved pitching was around a large drop in four seam fastball usage, which it would have to if you expect him to ever not be terrible. This has shone in both of his appearances so far. First, in Miami with Antonio throwing only 18 fastballs out of 43 total pitches and then with just 9 out of 26 on Wednesday in Toronto. Going down a layer here, he has started to mix in a sinker at a far higher rate than at any other point in his career. In 2025, according to Statcast, he threw the sink just 20 total times. On Sunday alone, he threw it seven. On Wednesday, he added three more. So 50% of his total last year in just his first four plus innings of work. His career high for sinkers thrown (a pitch he added in 2021) is just 88.

Senzatela being able to use that sinker more often helps his total approach but also seemed to help him throw a four seamer for far better outcomes in both outings. A pitch that batters slugged .540 off of last year (10 home runs, 26 doubles, 2 triples) has seen just three batted balls off of it so far and only one hit. The ability to mix and match his fastballs has the potential to elevate both pitches. It’s something pitching coaches have noted with Dollander as well, but Antonio really showcased it. There is a tendency to argue that moving a guy to the bullpen lets him increase his velocity, throwing harder in his shorter burst, but that’s not really the case for Antonio. He’s staying in line with how hard he was throwing a year ago, he’s just attacking differently.

Beyond Senza’s fastballs, his breaking balls have been a point of consternation in years past. Obviously, his over reliance on the fastball is due to a lack of trust in the other pitches to work, but if he’s ever going to be able to succeed he will have to find some junk that can be consistent. In the past, he utilized a slider against righties and a curveball against lefties, but he rarely got them to land for strikes and certainly didn’t trust them to start at bats. On 0-0 counts last year, Senzatela used his four seam fastball 360 times (58% of all ABs started with a fastball) and his curveball just 82 times. This year, he’s started 17% of ABs with a four seam fastball, his sinker 23%, and his curveball 35% (!) . On Sunday, he faced 10 batters and started just two of those ABs with a four seamer, using a breaking pitch six times, four of those being curveballs. I call out the curveball because he spun two 0-0 curves that were just plain nice. Here’s one to Connor Norby that got me goin’ with an “oooooo” on my couch.

So although there is nothing to say he’s using his curveball or changeup more than last year, it does seem like he has a much different point of attack than 2025. He’s less reliant on a bad four seamer overall, but he’s especially showing a new mix at the start of each hitters at-bat. The Rockies have preached this idea that they want to get ahead in counts, which is a fairly common refrain in pitching, but with Antonio specifically, just being a less predictable version of himself can give him a much better outcome. A walk or a hitter’s count isn’t ideal for anyone, but neither is giving up a .340 batting average against on first pitches. Basically, what I’d argue is that a curveball that misses and starts the count 1-0 is fine for him against the alternative.

It’s all a bit of a small sample here and it’s all a case of the gameplan working for him too, so we haven’t seen enough to say he’s good or that he’s even going to stick with this when the going gets tough, but I think it’s very clear that right now this is a different Antonio Senzatela than a year ago. I close with some heat maps. Last year’s Senzatela four seamer basically lived in the exact space you’d expect a pitch that got teed off on like his did to live. Right in the middle of the zone. Now, the fastball played with the edges a lot more. A day where he had command is one thing, but it could be a realization that he can generate soft contact in a lot of better spaces than he tried in the past.

So let’s ask the question we all need the answer to folks, can Antonio Senzatela Be Good? Well, that is a question only more outings and more results can tell us. But I’m starting to think he’s at least trying to be good. So we can mark this as a….MAYBE!

Connor’s Guys will be an update on the Guys I want to follow through the Rockies minor league system. This won’t necessarily be the best prospects, don’t expect a top-100 guy here, but guys I find interesting. Every now and then we’ll add a new guy when I spot someone putting up an interesting line or having a unique profile to look into

A new class of guys have emerged! Though we’ll keep our eyes on the class of 2025 (Brody Brecht, Sean Sullivan, Welinton Herrera), the class of 2026 is here and ready to be Connor’s Guys! Let’s introduce our class of 2026 this week so we can begin to track them all as they journey to be the next Rockies. This year, we have five Guys.

Konner Eaton, SP, Hartford Yard Goats

Andy Perez, INF, Hartford Yard Goats

JB Middleton, SP, Fresno Grizzlies

Jordy Vargas, SP, Spokane Indians

Max Belyeu, OF, Spokane Indians

Two position players enter the fold in this year’s Guys list with Andy Perez and Max Belyeu joining three pitchers. Middleton is last year’s Schmidt Special (that is, a second pick college arm) and Konner Eaton was the Rockies Farm Pitcher of the Year last season leading Spokane’s rotation with a cool 3.56 ERA and a nice K/9.

Belyeu is a guy the Schmidt Rockies really coveted. A college bat (Belyeu played at Texas) that has some real lefty pop but a giant hole in his swing. He struck out 32 times in 90 PAs in his post-draft season last year. But when he did catchup to the ball, boy did he smack it.

No Triple-A guys this year, but we will obviously keep an eye on Sean Sullivan and Welinton Herrera up there.

Pour one out for 2025 Guy Connor Van Scoyoc, he elected free agency and headed to Washington. CVS method will continue to be something I desire to see work at Coors.

Hey, you want to talk about something with your pals this week? Want to sound interesting or smart when someone brings up the Rockies? Sick of everyone having the same thing to say so you wanna change it up? Try this on for size.

The Rockies head home this week so we get our first taste of new pitchers at Coors. I think in general, for the discourse, we turn our eyes to the new guys who will get the ball in the opening series against Philadelphia. Today, Michael Lorenzen’s on the bump in the environment he apparently told his agent he wanted to pitch in. Tomorrow and Sunday are populated by new guys as well as Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano get their first tastes of Coors Field as a home pitcher.

If you’re looking to chat about the Rocmoes with your buddies or the coworkers, Sugano may be the most interesting start of the weekend. Not just because he’s a new guy, but because he led the American League in homers allowed last season. So you have a guy that coughed up more dingers than anyone else pitching in the ballpark famously known for thin air. There is a real element of danger to it! Any ball Sugano throws on Sunday afternoon could find itself in the bullpens or, hell, maybe the Rockpile way out there over 600 feet away. Who knows! It certainly angles itself as a potential trot party with a Phillies lineup on the other side that has struggled so far and would love to take some soft tosses over the wall.

Try that out at the bar and see if you get everyone thinking you’re the Rockies expert. Lemme know how it goes.

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