How have Rockies rookies performed?

Young Rox

Like any historically bad team, the Rockies have had a lot of really bad players playing for them. Guys that you’d expect to be bad like Orlando Arcia, guys you’re surprised are bad like Brenton Doyle, guys that you’d probably have no thoughts about at all like Scott Alexander. They’ve all been really bad. But what about the Rockies rookies? What about the steady stream of debutantes that the club has put together this year after trading, discarding, and injuring various veterans? Well, they’ve also mostly done pretty poorly. Which, is unfortunate for the short term hopes of the club, but maybe a good reality check for a bad development program (lol).

The Rockies have had 12 players play as rookies this season so far, with many notable callups like Chase Dollander and Kyle Karros mixed in with depth guys trying to seize an opportunity. So, let’s see if they seized that opportunity and will be part of the (hopefully) better 2026 Rockies.

The Top Prospects

Using the Rockies top prospect list from the beginning of the season at Baseball Prospectus (you should subscribe there btw), the Rockies have had four rookies play with the big club from their top ten. Chase Dollander, Zac Veen, Yanquiel Fernandez, and Adael Amador. As the best friend of a titular cartoon character would say, Zoinks! Those four have been pretty bad! Zac Veen got a rough cup of coffee in the spring before being sent back down to Albuquerque, then the Rockies complex in Arizona to figure some things out, then back to Albuquerque. Adael Amador has spent a stunted 41 games up in the bigs, putting up -1.1 rWAR in that time. Fernandez and Dollander are currently with the big club but there are more red flags than green flags with both currently.

Now, your first 100 or so PAs do not dictate your career. It’s important to know that lumps happen to a lot of prospects and currently a ton of position player prospects are getting off to HORRENDOUS starts in the bigs before figuring it all out and being somewhat presentable. Jo Adell has finally put together a league average bat with 26 home runs after 300 or so games of terrible ball. Jackson Chourio famously spent the first half of last season looking completely lost against big league pitching before locking in to be one of the more exciting players in the sport. Ethan Holliday’s older brother debuted as the number one prospect in baseball only to be forced into an up and down time as an Oriole. After an era of baseball’s young studs storming onto the scene and immediately succeeding, it has been jarring to see so many young and hyped players stumble out of the blocks. It could be bad tidings, or not.

That all being said, the Rockies young hitters are culminating in the bigs with troubling trends you can see up and down their development path. Yanquiel Fernandez is floating around a 30% K Rate, which is what nearly undid him in AA back in 2023, knocking him from exciting prospect to worrisome project. Amador saw his chase rate spike along with a very troubling drop in the strength of the balls he does hit. Veen, though in a brief stint that led to his rapid demotion, struck out at a 38% rate. All of the sudden, the worry about Rockies prospects in the upper minors not having a good approach at the plate has rung true.

It’s all to say, the worrying parts of these top hitters struggling are real things to be worried about. Not just young guys taking their lumps. There are real corrections that must be made for them to improve and succeed.

As for Dollander, that may be just straight lumps. His confidence appeared rattled as he struggled through the majors for the most part in the early going. His K numbers dropped, he wasn’t throwing his best pitch, he seemed to be trying to avoid hitters instead of attack them. Since his return, he’s put in 9 innings of work and it’s looked…better. No Paul Skenes immediate destruction mode but he has had consistent double digit swinging strikes in both appearances and his K numbers tracked along a better per 9 innings rate. For all intents and purposes, Chase looks more like a rookie with the right mentality just figuring out how to succeed than the hitters do.

The Bullpen

In the bullpen, the Rockies have seen five debuts along with additional rookie eligible players like Jaden Hill and Luis Peralta. They have been…a mixed bag. There are a lot of positives to take away, even from the guys that have struggled to stick like Juan Mejia or Zach Agnos. Mejia especially is a guy I have a real good eye on as someone who could breakout very soon. Look at this savant page:

He is driving a lot of things you really want to see from a young reliever and could be an electric arm at the back very, very soon.

On the flip side of that is Ryan Rolison who has been just about as bad as you could ever fear. The Rockies former first round pick has tried and failed to be effective in the upper minors and bigs. Now, we know he’s probably done for. Which is tough to admit but it’s better to see it in practice. You can effectively X him out of future builds I think.

Overall, I think the Rockies can be happy yet left wanting a little bit with their young bullpen arms. There was a lot of hype on what the season would bring and only one or two of those guys really showed some effective promise. Maybe someone like Connor Van Scoyoc can help…

Doing Ok I guess…

There are two rookies that were gifted recent callups and have been doing…pretty good, Kyle Karros and Warming Bernabel. Luckily for the Rockies, two positions of high need. Unluckily, how sustainable is this start? Bernabel in particular seems to be someone who could go either way in terms of this early success carrying over. He hasn’t been terrible in underlying numbers, he’s not striking out a ton, his BABIP isn’t like .430 like Nolan Jones had in 2023. But he’s not putting a ton of markers out there on his batted ball data that you can assume he’s got real juice. He’s not exactly crushing the ball and his expected slugging by Statcast is .388, nearly 150 points lower than his real slugging. It’s interesting, to say the least.

Karros is really barely into any sort of MLB career and it’s far too early to judge ANYTHING we are seeing. But, it has been nice to call up a guy and not see him immediately fall on his face against the stiffer competition. Karros has hit at every single level the Rockies have tested him in and that has so far continued in the bigs. He’s shown some real confidence at the plate and isn’t swinging wildly like some of his other Rockies compatriots. The power hasn’t totally shown up yet, but it’s only been 40 PAs so what are you asking for?

Overall, there are several rookies that have likely earned at least a share of playing time in the 2026 season, which is the only season to think about if you are 36-90 like the Rockies. Karros, Bernabel, Dollander, Mejia are locks for the roster next year. The Rockies are bad and should not be having 34-year-old journeymen being bad for them, now is the time to see what you’ve got in house. At the least, you can say “Well we know we can’t count on Adael Amador in the future".”

Connor’s Guys Update, An Update on Connor’s Minor League Guys of Note

Connor’s Guys will be an update on the Guys I want to follow through the Rockies minor league system. This won’t necessarily be the best prospects, don’t expect a top-100 guy here, but guys I find interesting. Every now and then we’ll add a new guy when I spot someone putting up an interesting line or having a unique profile to look into. Currently, Connor’s Guys are all pitchers. Sean Sullivan (AA), Welinton Herrera (AA), Brody Brecht (A), and Connor Van Scoyoc (AAA)

A normal return-to-form week for Van Scoyoc who continues to defy God and pitch without missing any bats. He now is down to a 4.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Just preposterous. I’m tired of asking for him to be called up.

Like many minor league injuries, I’m not sure how serious Sullivan’s stint is. It could be just a little break, it could be the end of his season. Hoping to hear more soon.

On the other end of an injury, Brody Brecht is starting to stretch out. Five innings in his last start, another dynamic performance. 25 K: 8 BB is about as good as you can ask for from a guy that had control concerns when he got drafted. Next year in the upper minors will be telling for Brecht. What happens when the hitters get better?

I’m listening…learning...growing

Whenever you post things, you sometimes are wrong. Last week, I posted that the Rockies were probably the worst team ever and that they were no longer assured of avoiding the dreaded “most losses ever” record. Well, since then, the Rockies have taken three of four from Arizona and walked off Los Angeles on Monday. Now, barring a complete collapse that would be unprecedent and fitting for the record, the Rockies will absolutely avoid 122 losses. They are just six small wins away. I apologize for my transgression in this instance. I will listen and learn.

Additionally, since I expressed my worry for Charlie Condon and his AA struggles, the Rockies prospect has pushed his OPS to .770 at the level and cracked two more home runs.

Maybe this is my superpower…

36 to go