Rebuilding the Rockies, Part 2

In part one of Rebuilding the Rockies, we took a stab at rebuilding the process, or the underlying guidance of all decisions. Without this foundation shifting, the Rockies will never be a team that can compete sustainably (if at all). But it’s no fun just to change the culture. There’s work to be done on the roster.

For this exercise, I really just want to focus on the major league team. How can I fully analyze the minor leaguers the Rockies have? If we change the philosophy of development who is to say who will succeed? I don’t want to make decisions for Charlie Condon or Cole Carrigg when it is hard to say what kind of major leaguer they will become. I also hate building “trades” involving prospects because I don’t know how the league values these guys, I don’t want to guess.

So, let’s do two things with this. The first, let’s review the players the Rockies should move off the roster. Whether that is in cutting bait or in trying to return prospects, these players should not be on the 2026 Rockies. You’ll also notice I skip a lot of players, guys like German Marquez and Tyler Kinley. These players are not under contract next year. Just let them go. Anyone who is a pending FA right now is an easy exit plan.

Ryan McMahon

We’ll start with the guys that they probably won’t just have to leave on the side of the highway like Toy Story 2. McMahon is a polarizing figure in the world of analytics, with his defense valued somewhere between four wins and zero wins between Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus. McMahon’s ability as a batter is limited. Even in the advantageous bounds of Coors, he’s just above average from an OPS perspective (.744 career). His defensive value being polarizing does not help him overcome these issues at the plate. As is a common theme among Rockies hitters, McMahon strikes out too much and needs just a little more pop to really be a problem at the plate. But, the guys that like his glove REALLY like it and he can play multiple infield positions. On a contender or a team with a left handed need, McMahon would be a solid utility. The Rockies won’t be able to get a haul for Mac, but he’s not someone you’d need to dump and drive in a rebuild.

One thing that always has intrigued me about McMahon is his ability to hit the ball hard and yet somehow never translate that to legitimate slugging. It’s because he’s also hit the ball, well, down. Outside of 2021 (which was his best slugging season), McMahon’s launch angles have flirted with single digits nearly the entire season. He hits the ball like a missile but it never gets very high off the bat. Could a team with a legitimate hitting approach give Ryan an ability to hit 10-15 more homers? It makes you wonder. It also gives the Rockies, a team that has historically overvalued their own players to their own ruin, the ability to maybe get a team to meet a higher demand. If the team can see their own version of McMahon in the middle of the Rockies incompetence, maybe they pay a higher asking price. Even in a new world, one where smarter minds control the Rockies, this could be an advantage.

Brenton Doyle

Referenced in a previous post, Doyle’s trade value is one to monitor if you’re the Rockies in a complete rebuild situation. Doyle represents a line of thinking I believe the Rockies need to institute into what they need to do to rebuild, which is anyone that you do not believe will be good in five years, you need to move on from, because that is the target date of your rebuild. Doyle’s best years could be in front of him, but they also could be used up by the time the Rockies really need it. Doyle is a valuable asset as a very good centerfielder with…maybe a bat. He’s struggled this season, nursing injuries and not using the speed in his legs to his advantage yet. But he has already shown he can be a viable every day center fielder which is important for any team in baseball. He is on a pre-arbitration contract, he has elite defense and good baserunning. It would behoove the Rockies to make Doyle a piece that can help them rebuild under their newest philosophy.

Michael Toglia

Jury would be out on if you can find a home for Toglia, a guy who strikes out at a 30% clip from first base. But, he does hit the ball hard and he does also take his fair share of walks. There is possibly something in the profile here, but it’s not something the Rockies should ever pursue again. Toglia represents the fundamental problem with Rockies hitting evaluation. He is not a bad hitter, though in 2025 he seems to be determined to make me regret saying that, but he is precisely the type of profile the Rockies should avoid as much as they can. If you can get something for him, great. If you can’t, I would cut bait as soon as you can. Toglia is not going to help you in five years when you’re good, he is not really going to help you now. Like a statue of Mussolini, he represents a regime that must lose it’s influence even in the metaphorical ways.

The Cast-Offs

These are the guys you just need to get rid of. I don’t expect much in a return, it’s just better for you and for them if they play baseball somewhere else.

The Rotation: Freeland, Senzatela

Kyle Freeland is a major victory for the organization in a lot of ways. A Colorado kid, drafted by his hometown team, finds major league success in his early years. I understand why a team would sign a guy like that for as long as they could. Especially one owned by Dick Monfort, the king of the sentimental. But, he is not going to sell tickets just because he is #LocalsOnly. The only reason I don’t have him in the above is I think his salary is a turnoff for teams. I think he has a decent approach and some quality pitches. I think a team would talk themselves into Kyle. But not at the money he’s making. It may be best for Kyle to catch a DFA so he can enter free agency with a full contract paid for by the Rockies and no strings attached otherwise.

Senzatela is just not good. I loved watching his development through the majors as The Pitcher Who Can Do One Thing but it just isn’t working anymore after injuries and guys generally being able to prepare for that one thing.

The Lineup: Kris Bryant

A large part of me wishes this worked out. I don’t think the Rockies would have been good even with a best case Kris Bryant but it is depressing that even when they make decisions that are dumb but could be fun they just blow up. Bryant’s back injury feels extremely difficult to operate around. He still gets 182 million dollars even if you cut him. I think it is probably for the best if everyone just walked away from this with a tiny shred of dignity.

The Guys You Keep

Now, for the players that get the honor of staying on the team! Wow, I am jealous of them!

Ezequiel Tovar

Tovar is sort of polarizing in this as he does technically represent the problematic nature of Rockies evaluation. He struck out 200 times in 2024 and he just does not ever take a pitch. But he is a good defender at a premium position and slugs well enough I think there is a spot for him in a lineup. 26 home runs and 45 doubles are at least a representation of a player that takes advantage of Coors Field in ways that some of the other Rockies young players do not. In a lineup where Tovar is your fifth or sixth best hitter, he is an extremely valuable asset. In a lineup where you need him to carry the load as your best hitter, you are in for a lot of pain. At only 23, Tovar is young enough you can have him wait out the bad years before he can be a valuable member of a good team at just 28

Jordan Beck

Beck’s name could be replaced by any of the outfield bats the Rockies need to have land as a valuable member of the organization. This could be Zac Veen, Yanquiel Fernandez, Sterlin Thompson. These could all be Jordan Beck but right now, it’s Beck’s job to lose. After a miserable start to the season that saw him temporarily sent down to Albuquerque, Beck is back in the bigs and hitting well for the first time in his MLB career. He’s pushed his OPS to .899 and earned at-bats in the lead off position. Really, since he came back up he’s been hitting .289/.346/.660 which is actually great for a 26 game stretch. The Rockies are so immeasurably bad that this hasn’t broken through, but Beck is hitting at an All-Star level. Here’s his Statcast page:

That K rate is high, but falling. He’s under 25% since his return to the majors. Like Tovar, Beck is young. He just turned 24. If you’re going to make a bet on one of these outfielders to actually hit in the bigs, let’s count on Beck. With the departure of Bryant and Toglia, you can find at-bats for him in a lot of places. There’s more value in him being here than anywhere else.

Hunter Goodman

He might not be a catcher long term but Goodman can hit the ball hard, slug effectively, and maintains his Ks at a rate I would see as “good enough”. He’s 25, so maybe he’ll be good still when the team is but the real support here is he may fit into a 4th outfield, infield, emergency catcher utility role. There’s a lot to like about a “kind of” swiss army knife here. I’d keep him.

Chase Dollander

Obviously. I know there is always temptation to trade young players for more prospects and sell, sell, sell to do a tear down. But trading Dollander would be similar to intentionally sprinting into a parked car. No reason to hurt your knees like this.

Ryan Feltner

Injured since April 28, it’s easy to forget Feltner may be the Rockies best pitcher on staff right now. The 28-year-old wasn’t perfect in his early showings but his ability is better than what people would expect to send in a return package if you were to trade him. As you begin to call up pitching prospects like Sean Sullivan, Carson Palmquist, Brody Brecht, etc. you should have one stable veteran to help sturdy the ship. Feltner can be that AND provide actual solid innings of work for you.

The Bullpen (Kind of)

I think this is where you take any offer that impresses you and keep anyone that doesn’t receive that kind of offer. Zach Agnos, Seth Halvorsen, Vic Vodnik. These are all live arms that could be targeted by a lot of teams but if there is any where you can be satisfied with your development process as is, it’s in the bullpen. Make the moves you need to, understand your timeline of five years, but work with what is working. You don’t have to reinvent EVERYTHING.

So there’s one way to breakdown the current Rockies roster. We’re keeping about 12 guys, we’re cutting loose about six (not including the guys who we just won’t re-sign). But what to do from there?

In part three, I will take a stab at making the rebuilding Rockies interesting. That is, finding guys that maybe aren’t valued very highly that could be a good fit for what we are doing.