We tend to view history as though we are at the end of a tube, looking backwards at cascading, constant progress towards our current world. We live under the impression that enlightened progressives have slowly but surely bent the world to their whim through slow incrementalism. It guides our viewpoint to a place that causes our minds to snap when things don’t go according to that plan. If reactionary forces win, if we are pulled back from prior progression, we are told this was an overstep, asking for too much too quickly, that history is defined by the small gains.

But as you really learn about history, you learn this simply isn’t true. Progress isn’t measured by small gains made slowly over time, it’s gigantic leaps, defeats, and turnarounds. The French revolted, created the first republic in Europe in 1792, and it failed, it ushered in an Emperor and eventually the complete restoration of the crown they removed. But today, all of Europe stands with a constitution and a weakened monarchy. Simon Bolivar lost three republics and yet the Spanish don’t colonize the Americas any longer.

This is a strained and likely annoying reference to most. But, the point is important to analyze. At this moment, how do we measure the progress of the Rockies? How can we?

It’s tired at this point, we know where the Rockies were at this time last year. Likely with a comically bad record, the face of memes, etc. Measuring the Rockies against their 2025 selves is not really helpful, it’s like measuring the Rockies against the worst injury you’ve ever had or the night you got dumped via text message while on the Q train heading TO A DATE. Of course they’re better than the 2025 Rockies, literally anyone is! And I don’t mean that in an exaggerated way, it’s very possible the 2025 Rockies were the worst team in MLB history. So yeah, anyone.

They have improved, though. Their pitching staff is no longer the worst in the league and has (thus far) cut it’s ERA by nearly a full run. They have some legitimately exciting arms in the bullpen and there are actual success stories from the process implemented by the new regime like Antonio Senzatela. Their usage of platoons for the offense has helped cover some of the startling deficiencies of their lineup (though that lineup is still very, very bad). They’re still losing, but they’re losing closer than last year. As Bobby Bowden once said, you lose big, then you lose close, then you win. So maybe it’s the second part? In any case, like with the above (and with anything), the Rockies progress is difficult to measure in game results right now. It’s about process and evaluation of that process first.

Though, it’s important to remember that last year wasn’t the first year. Since the Rockies traded Nolan Arenado and unceremoniously ended an era of actual successful baseball, the club has lost a lot, including 100 games three seasons in a row. This is the context of the situation and why progress might have to be linear for the first time in history. There can be no Napoleons here, no restorations of prior ideology that had led us so far astray. The Rockies can’t show any sign they haven’t broken free of the Monfort Thought that dominated and destroyed so many futures. That leaves them in a difficult space. How can you tell fans to be patient when they already have been? How can you be honest at how bad things were before you got here and how long it will take to fix?

All to say that as we hit Memorial Day Weekend, the unofficial “First Post” of the season that gives you a rough idea of where you land, the Rockies are difficult to judge. They are bad. They have many, many bad players that its likely time to move on from. In the context of the situation though, is it ok? Have they shaken some of the loser particles loose with the indications that they’re at least willing to change and adapt? How can we even tell?

The hard answer to the questions is we can’t. This process, win or lose, is going to be found out eventually. And we’re just here for the ride of it regardless. We aren’t from Trafalmadore and we can’t see all time at once.

So how do we judge the Rockies here at the point where we’re allowed to start judging them? I guess I wrote all this to say, by simply judging what’s in front of you in the moment. The Rockies are what they are right now, which is still mostly bad. We can keep in mind that they might finally be bad with a plan to be good in place but why get into fights over whether or not that’s true right now when we have no idea? Only the decisions at the draft, at the deadline, and beyond will tell us that. How do we judge the Rockies? They’re still bad right now, but there are parts that aren’t anymore. Maybe those parts will stick. Hopefully, they do. How do we judge the Rockies? All we can do is keep watching. So it goes.

Connor’s Guys will be an update on the Guys I want to follow through the Rockies minor league system. This won’t necessarily be the best prospects, don’t expect a top-100 guy here, but guys I find interesting. Every now and then we’ll add a new guy when I spot someone putting up an interesting line or having a unique profile to look into

Chat, is Max Belyeu cooked? Is he cooked chat? Oh boy he looks cooked. He has a 44% K rate over his last month chat. It’s not looking good. He’s getting completely toasted by Northwest League pitching. Oh, it’s looking bad.

I saw something interesting on the Eastern League (and MILB as a whole) possibly having a different ball, a jumpier ball that is leading to more homers, which would make sense for Eaton’s HR/9 taking a slight jump up to 1.5 (the post was on bluesky and was pure speculation so I don’t know if it’s true just FYI). The homers have really been his only problem the past few starts and certainly his last two (5 homers allowed). Hard to say if it’s true but it certainly makes me open my eyes even more on Eaton if his only struggles are due to a bouncy ball. On the other end of that, can we trust Andy Perez numbers? I hope so…I’m starting to put in my hours at the “Promote Andy Perez Factory”.

Perez is starting to be pretty funny as a hitter, actually. He’s not striking out or walking, at all. His K rate is 10.8% which is really good! But he’s walked just five times in 166 PAs. Maybe this plays? I think it’s an interesting thing to monitor, which is a staple of Guys I like to watch in the minors. As he moves up into Albuquerque and (hopefully) Denver, it’ll be interesting to wonder if this type of guy that always swings (63% swing rate) but also always makes contact (84% contact rate) will work. As you look around the league you’d say it doesn’t, oh god it doesn’t, but I don’t know if the Rockies are in a spot where they shouldn’t at least try?

Hey, you want to talk about something with your pals this week? Want to sound interesting or smart when someone brings up the Rockies? Sick of everyone having the same thing to say so you wanna change it up? Try this on for size this week.

Ok, so we’re here and the Rockies aren’t good. The good news is, we didn’t expect them to be! The bad news is, we don’t know what they do next. The trade deadline in two months will tell us a lot though. I’ve tiered out some guys that I think they should entertain moving at a level of concern if they don’t move.

Ok you can’t reasonably make an argument for keeping any of those guys beyond “they’re good and it makes me feel happy when guys are good”. Moniak is running down his pre-free agency years and will never have more value than right now as a guy to trade. You have to understand he won’t be good by the time the Rockies are again and this needs to happen. Senzatela fits here too. You have a team option for next year and then he’s an FA, if teams believe he is Actually Good now (and they should!) it’s a no brainer.

I’m not saying I expect the Rockies to trade all six of these guys this July but if we don’t hear HEAVY rumors around them and if they don’t move at least a few of them, it draws my concern that maybe nothing has changed here at all.

I think you’re going to have a small customer base for these guys, just from them being mostly one dimensional and perhaps targeted to contenders needing one weird trick to make the playoffs. But, these guys are not guys you will see on the next good Rockies team and it’s not at all a problem if they get an offer for them that helps in the longer term. But if they don’t move them, I’m more willing to accept the market just never materialized than the tier above

Whadyagonnado? I’d trade these guys sure but there’s an old joke about trading bad players for good players and that seems to be what this is. You can’t sell teams what isn’t worth buying and outside Tovar’s defense, what’s really worth buying here?

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