The Big Board

It’s Time to Deadline

We’ll be roughly 30 hours from the trade deadline by the time this hits your inbox and shockingly the Rockies have already made a move. Sending Ryan McMahon to the New York Yankees for two pitching prospects, LHP Griffin Herring and RHP Josh Grosz. Herring has shot up prospect boards with a very strong spring in High-A and he becomes the Rockies #5 prospect on MLB Pipeline, Grosz slides in at number 18 on the Rockies board and both seem to be joining the rotation in Spokane for the near future. Plenty of others have analyzed Herring and Grosz, including Patrick Dubuque at Baseball Prospectus.

After that move, which surprised even myself, the Rockies appear to be open for business. Beat writer Thomas Harding spoke to 850 KOA and made it sound like anyone and everyone not named Ezequiel Tovar is on the table. This would include more than just bullpen names like Jake Bird and Tyler Kinley, Harding specifically called out Kyle Freeland and this probably includes center fielder Brenton Doyle and surprisingly good hitter Mickey Moniak. With that in mind, let’s talk through the Rockies Big Board and rank the guys they should trade in order of feasibility.

#1 - The Bullpen

This kind of thing is always useful to open yourself up to if you’re not a contender. Teams are constantly looking for reliable arms and bullpen trades can happen a lot easier than say a rotational starter or a superstar. The Rockies have some live arms in their pen that have impressed teams even with the worst record in baseball, guys that throw 100, guys on cheap salaries that won’t take many calls to the owner to get the money for, guys that are probably YEARNING for the chance to get away from Coors Field.

In Jake Bird and Tyler Kinley, the Rockies have older relievers running short on team control that have shown significant promise. Bird’s ERA is high, but he’s shown an improved feel for the strikeout, jumping from just 31 in 40 innings last year to 62 in 53 innings this season. He’s been trusted more by Rockies manager Warren Schaefer and has somehow a Home/Road split that is opposite what you’d expect. Pumping a sub-3 ERA in Coors Field. Small sample size be damned, Bird has achieved something.

Kinley is a tougher sell. He’s had some moments of electricity this year but since his dynamite 2022, his ERAs have been 6, 6, high 5. That’s not exactly what you want to see. His FIP has been better, around the mid to low 4s all three seasons, but if you’re asking teams to pay any type of prospect for a guy like that, you’d like something more. Throughout it all, he has had a decent K% and his savant page isn’t the worst thing you could see. I’m skeptical you can get a Kinley deal done, but teams do get desperate.

Last season, the Rockies flipped Nick Mears to the Milwaukee Brewers in a pretty low key deal. I thought this was a savvy move by the organization, though I don’t know if the return was adequate for what I think Mears was even in purple. Mears was a statcast darling hiding in a Rockies bullpen ERA. Now, he’s pumping ched in Milwaukee with a 2.88 ERA and a significantly better walk rate. Tyler Kinley and Jake Bird aren’t these type of players. Buuuuut Seth Halvorsen and Victor Vodnik might be.

The two young arms of the Rockies pen are suffering the same fate as everyone on the Rockies this year and not playing well. But unlike Kinley and Bird, the two are under team control for more years AND have some tools in their shed that make statcast show at least a little bit of red.

None of these four guys are going to bring home the Rockies next star, but unless you’re trading a Juan Soto, teams are less likely than ever to send over legitimate prospects. Trades for the Rockies now should be about firming up the margins, exploring ways to make the system deeper and more well-rounded.

#2 - Brenton Doyle

With Doyle, you might be selling low. The outfielder went bananas last season, looking like an anchor for the Rockies outfield defensively and finding a swing that attacked pitchers. But, this year, he’s been bad on both fronts. His defensive numbers (which I will get to below as well) are abysmal, he is not hitting. He’s been hurt a lot this year with nagging stuff but his OPS has dropped back into the 5’s and his 20-20 doubles and homers power he flashed last year is a thing of the past.

I don’t know how much the Rockies will be actively shopping Brenton, I don’t know how much teams will be actively looking to acquire him. But, Doyle does have tools that any contender would need. On his best days, he’s shown to be an elite defensive center fielder. He was by far the best outfield glove in baseball a year ago. Even if last year was an outlier, if you can make it a small one and not a huge one, maybe you have a 2-3 WAR every day player in there. At the least, defensive players are having a value moment right now and that roster flexibility could be valuable to a team like the Dodgers (god forbid) or MIlwaukee.

#3 - Kyle Freeland/German Marquez

The last of the Guys that Won Us a Playoff Game. Freeland and Marquez are here just in name recognition alone. Marquez, still building up from Tommy John surgery, is not a likely needle mover in trade discussions. He has has some good finesse starts recently, but his ERA sits at 5.63 and, well,

You shouldn’t be that blue unless you’re in Eiffel 65.

Freeland has also struggled and remains about as inconsistent as one can be with his stuff. One inning he has that 2018 fastball back, getting hitters to ground out with ease. The next, he’s all over the middle of the zone. Tougher still, he’s owed 16 million next year so a team would have to think he’s got some solid juice left to make an acquisition.

#4 - Mickey Moniak

Now, why is Moniak at #4 Connor? Surely he’s the only actual good player you’ve listed so far. Objectively, of course.

Yes, I know. But Moniak’s value is tough to ascribe. He’s been terrible defensively. He’s not really capable of playing all three outfield positions like the Rockies have tried to showcase him on, and for all his solid hitting…you have to think about Coors a little bit.

A .534 slug and 16 home runs so far is something to be proud of, if you’re Mickey or if you’re the Rockies a team that took a chance on him. But too often, fans will go video game mode and decide to flip a guy like Mickey. And if they can, they should! But Mickey is nearly positionless and that makes his hitting just…ok. Maybe a team will think he’s really taken a step forward, maybe someone will need a lefty bat to even out the bench. I think there’s value to be had here. I just don’t know if Moniak’s position as the best hitter on the worst team in baseball gets his price very far.

Connor’s Guys Update, An Update on Connor’s Minor League Guys of Note

Connor’s Guys will be an update on the Guys I want to follow through the Rockies minor league system. This won’t necessarily be the best prospects, don’t expect a top-100 guy here, but guys I find interesting. Every now and then we’ll add a new guy when I spot someone putting up an interesting line or having a unique profile to look into. Currently, Connor’s Guys are all pitchers. Sean Sullivan (AA), Welinton Herrera (AA), Brody Brecht (A), and Connor Van Scoyoc (AAA).

CVS had a really bad night that put up basically all of his runs. But that’s life in the PCL. Praying to any god I can find that a couple of Rockies relievers find new homes on Thursday so we can begin to speak the Van Scoyoc Gospel in Denver.

Mostly, I want to highlight a run now of Brody Brecht not walking anyone. His draft stock took a hit because of his control issues, the Rockies taking him didn’t give many people hope that he would fix them, but his work in Fresno has so far been basically walk free since his return. He’s still building up to a full start and his time in the Rockies system has been hit by injury and fatigue, but if the Rockies have an arm in Brody Brecht, it could at least showcase an improvement in pitching development.

Sullivan pitches tonight so no worries on nothing since 7/22 for him. We’ll see what he’s got.

This defense…it’s…

I now point your attention to the Rockies DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) Outfield Leaderboard:

In the biz, we call that “Ass”.

I’m almost blown away by how badly the Rockies have played in the outfield and it makes you wonder how many inflated ERAs on the staff exist simply because nobody in the grass can get to anything.

With Doyle, as I talked about above, it might be the lingering injuries and just a tough year, but this outfield is absurdly bad. 103 qualifying outfielders in MLB have at last one (1) defensive run saved, the Rockies have zero currently on the roster.

On Saturday, with the Rockies down 7-0, Mickey Moniak was removed from the game and the Rockies outfield became Yanquiel Fernandez in left, Jordan Beck in center, and Tyler Freeman in right. It’s hard to downgrade an outfield by removing Mickey Moniak from it, but the Rockies achieved that. Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but the Rockies coughed up 9 runs in the 7th inning after this swap was made.

They do everything poorly, so pointing this out feels mean, but this is another example of a team without any idea how to win in it’s own park. So it doesn’t.