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Do they STINK or are they MID

It’s crazy how fast time flies! Feels like just yesterday we were shopping in one of our favorite local stores Wal Mart (family owned and operated) and the Rockies were just a glint in our eye. Now, here we are, back in our favorite mom and pop shop Wal Mart and they’ve played 26 games. In that time, we’ve laughed, we’ve cried, and we’ve actually, shockingly, enjoyed Rockies baseball.

The Rockies are 10 and 16, which is actually something like five million games better than they were a year ago at this point. Last year, at the 26 game mark, the Rockies were 4-22. So even this moment where we are are mostly annoyed and can see them wilting down the stretch, they are looking like they are a lot better just by their default setting not being “the worst thing you’ve ever seen with your own two eyes”. They don’t stink! But they’re probably pretty mid. But, all that said there are PARTS of this team that might actually be pretty good. Let’s talk about it.

THEY STINK

These guys just straight up are not good. Or haven’t been very good here so far.

Jordan Beck

Unfortunately for Beck, he’s in a position that the Rockies have quite a few options ready to take his spot and he no longer has the wiggle room to start this bad. The Rockies corner outfielder started this bad last year too and after a brief stint in ABQ, he found his footing, but that was then. The Rockies, in the midst of an evaluation year, probably want to see the Zac Veens and Sterlin Thompsons against MLB pitching. Sometimes you get an injury that allows you to do this without pipping anyone’s job. But right now, Jordan Beck is slugging .265. He has one home run, two doubles, and ten strikeouts. Which, to be fair to him, is under the team average for K% and his BABIP is .179. But to be fair to us, that’s not because he’s making good contact and just getting unlucky.

Beck is swinging more (somehow). In fact, he’s basically swinging constantly. I worry he has been possessed by one of those wacky waving inflatable arm tube decorations. Constantly moving his arms and body in ways that we are unsure what the intention or drive is behind it. He walks to the plate and is swinging, he leaves the plate and is swinging, he wakes up in a cold sweat on the couch of his apartment…swinging. Beck is swinging 54% of the time and within that, 75% of the time if the pitch is in the zone. He’s adopted a buckshot approach to hitting that has simply not paid off. He’s making worse contact and grounding out more. It’s not good!

Victor Vodnik

For all the hype the Rockies bullpen has deservedly gotten over their first month of play, their 9th inning guy Vodnik has been, well, bad. Even before his meltdown on Thursday against the Padres, Vodnik had yet to really have a normal ninth. Carrying a base runner in all of his appearances and allowing some loud outs that just found a glove.

Then, disaster struck, as it is wont to do with guys that play with fire too much. Vodnik gave up five earned to the Padres in the ninth and cost the Rockies a win in a game they played pretty well in. This might be, and probably is, just relief pitcher noise. These guys yo-yo between elite and bum more often than any other position in the sport. But, right now, Vodnik has a 7.59 ERA and six walks in just 10 innings of work. It’s not good! He likely has lost the ninth inning after this meltdown. Though, it’s unsure to who. Jaden Hill and Jimmy Herget have been the Designated Firemen for Schaeffer so I don’t know if he’ll want to move them out of that role, but perhaps this is time for Antonio Senzatela to rise?

Ezequiel Tovar

Jordan Beck is Juan Soto compared to Tovar this year. The Rockies young shortstop is coming off of a down year fraught with injuries and it looked like he had an improved approach in spring training to help him rebound. Unfortunately, that improved approach gave way after some early season struggles and now we have a Tovar pressing to the point of swinging at everything he sees.

In these 26 games, Tovar has 27 strikeouts and just THREE walks. He’s swinging 63% of the time right now (above his career average) and he’s chasing pitches outside of the zone 47% of the time, which is among the worst in baseball.

It’s led to a pretty difficult start, but unlike Beck Tovar will be given the rope to find himself. The Rockies aren’t currently busting at the seams with high minors shortstops. It’s concerning though, with his guaranteed money, that he hasn’t adapted to a new hitting philosophy at all and continues to anchor his at-bats in his bad habits.

THEY’RE MID

These guys are maybe good? Or maybe just mid. They are just good enough for me.

Mickey Moniak

This miiiiight be controversial. Moniak has been, by far, the Rockies best hitter so far this season. On top of that, he’s played a competent left field and given the Rockies flexibility in doing so. But, look, he’s doing it at Coors (six of his eight homers are at home) and really is unplayable against lefties.

Zoinks! But his one hit on a lefty being a homer is funny.

I like Mickey, I respect Coors Merchants, but I can’t abide by getting TOO excited over them. And being a platoon bat is a useful thing! It’s good to be really good against righties! But, again, does that make a player good overall?

Sound off in the comments.

Willi Castro

This also may be controversial, but for the other reasons. Castro has drawn the ire of fans for some notable botched plays along the infield and not really making a huge impact offensively. Despite this, he may be a key cog in the idea that you can’t just watch the game with your eyes. You need to see the numbers. Castro has been a very good defender in roles all over the diamond. He’s been effective in the role the Rockies want him in, really. His Statcast defensive numbers are among the league’s best and his batting numbers are inching back to his career lines. He’s not going to be a 4 WAR juggernaut on the infield but he has been exceptionally useful as a utility player. They can move him from second to third to short to left to even first. And he can give a pretty competent to elite effort at any. That’s good!

I think Castro is a perfectly mid player. Mid to me is useful, needed, helpful.

THEY’RE GOOD

This is for the guys that really knock my socks off. These boys are good!

Chase Dollander

Though he oddly continues to be used as a bulk follower for the Rockies rather than getting a first inning for himself, Dollander has been electric. For all that has been said about Antonio Senzatela, Dollander has shown a similar adoption of new ideology and it is starting to really bear fruit. A homer prone appearance in Toronto is really the only blemish on a very fine start to the kid’s sophomore effort.

Similar to Senza, the Rockies have employed using two fastballs to alternate between for Dollander to establish himself in counts. Last year, as noted by myself and others, Dollander threw his four seamer half the time. This year, he’s mixed in a sinker more often and cut his four seam usage down to 36%. This has helped his fastball keep hitters off-balance as they can no longer sit on the pitch being a four seamer. His last two outings, a 5 1/3 inning performance in Houston and six innings at home vs. San Diego, each featured nine strikeouts and only four hits. The Padres saw Dollander rely more on his four seamer, though that may have been scouting report based as the high velocity often got by San Diego’s hitters. In neither performance were hitters really catching up to his fastball in the same way they did last year, mostly generating soft contact or finding gloves. Just two of his base hits were hard hit. Even better, Dollander battled in both starts with situations that weren’t clean. He lost himself after an infield hit on Monday, hitting a batter, and eventually walking in the Padres only run against him. But he lined back up, struck out the next hitter, and then completed the following inning.

Similarly, in Houston, Dollander gave up a walk and an RBI double to start the sixth, cutting the Rockies lead to one. This was now a high leverage moment for Chase and the club. Schaeffer kept him in there. He got noted Rockies killer Christian Walker on a weak ground ball, then struck out Joey Loperfido and Cam Smith swinging to end the inning. It was grown up pitching and both this moment and his battle back against San Diego showed, to me, that he has the makeup to be a real top of the rotation starter for the Rockies.

Antonio Senzatela

YOU ALREADY KNOW IT’S THE #SENZAISSANCE BROTHER

Connor’s Guys Update, an update on Connor’s Guys in the Minors

Connor’s Guys will be an update on the Guys I want to follow through the Rockies minor league system. This won’t necessarily be the best prospects, don’t expect a top-100 guy here, but guys I find interesting. Every now and then we’ll add a new guy when I spot someone putting up an interesting line or having a unique profile to look into

Player

Last Week

Last 21 days

Konner Eaton

5 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 3 BB

20 1/3 IP, 3.98Chri ERA, 15 Ks, 13 BB

Andy Perez

.500/.526/.611 2 2B, 3 SB

.359/.379/.500 9 2B, 6 SB

JB Middleton

4 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks, 4 BB

17 1/3 IP, 4.15 ERA, 16 Ks, 7 BB

Jordy Vargas

4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 Ks, 4 BB

18 IP, 7 ER, 23 Ks, 11 BB

Max Belyeu

.200/.333/.400, 1 3B

.224/.328/.466 2 HR, 2 2B, 3 3B

Andy Perez is heating up…the pitchers…were ice cold. So it goes in Connor’s Guys Land.

Something to Discourse About This Week (Matchups, Storylines, etc)

Hey, you want to talk about something with your pals this week? Want to sound interesting or smart when someone brings up the Rockies? Sick of everyone having the same thing to say so you wanna change it up? Try this on for size this week.

Rockies are in Mamdanistan to take on the Mets this weekend, who are anything but normal. If they take two of three or, even worse, sweep the Queens Contingent, I think you could see some truly unhinged posts. Keep this in mind as they head out. They get to face the main acquisition of the winter for the Mets, former Brewer Freddy Peralta. Peralta cost a hefty amount in the offseason to acquire and if Brandon Sproat continues to pitch ok for a Milwaukee team contending for the playoffs. Well, you could see some more unhinged posts. Especially if Mickey Moniak, Troy Johnston, and the righty killers in the Rockies lineup continue to do damage.

Monday morning, bring this up at the water cooler. See who may be a Mets fan among you…

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